Prediction Markets Face Growing Regulatory Divide Across Europe

Prediction markets are facing sharply different regulatory approaches across Europe, with Gibraltar establishing a dedicated licensing framework while regulators in several major European markets treat unlicensed platforms as illegal gambling. France and Spain took direct action against prediction-market operators in 2026, while nine European gambling authorities agreed to cooperate on enforcement against platforms that fail to comply with national rules.

The divide comes as prediction markets continue to expand beyond elections into sports, politics, financial markets and other real-world events.

Blockchain-based platforms such as Polymarket have also brought prediction markets closer to the crypto sector, allowing users to trade event contracts using digital assets. However, European regulators remain divided over how these products should fit within existing gambling and financial regulatory frameworks.

Gibraltar Creates Dedicated Prediction Market Framework

Gibraltar has taken one of Europe’s most accommodating approaches by creating specific regulations for prediction markets.

The Prediction Market Regulations 2026 were introduced under Gibraltar’s Gambling Act 2025 and took effect in July. Separate regulations governing prediction-market fees and duties followed in August.

The framework gives prediction-market businesses a route to operate under regulatory oversight rather than treating the sector as inherently prohibited.

Gibraltar had already issued a prediction-market license earlier in the year. Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry Nigel Feetham said in March that the government viewed prediction markets as a potentially significant growth area for the jurisdiction.

France Blocks Polymarket

France has taken a substantially different approach.

The French National Gambling Authority (ANJ) said in February that prediction-market platforms are not authorized in France and are considered illegal gambling services. The regulator said their characteristics resemble online gambling but lack the protections required in France’s regulated market.

Enforcement escalated in July when the ANJ ordered French internet service providers to block access to Polymarket.

Polymarket had previously introduced geoblocking intended to prevent financial transactions from France. However, the ANJ said those restrictions were being circumvented and subsequently ordered access to the website itself to be blocked.

The regulator reported that Polymarket attracted 578,751 visits from France in June, including 205,057 unique visitors.

Spain Targets Polymarket and Kalshi

Spanish regulators have also moved against major prediction-market platforms.

In May, Spain’s Directorate General for the Regulation of Gambling (DGOJ) opened sanction proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi over allegations that they were offering gambling products without the required authorization.

The regulator also ordered both websites to be blocked in Spain as a precautionary measure while the proceedings continue. Spanish authorities said prediction markets involving wagers fall within gambling activity and therefore require authorization to operate legally in the country.

Nine Regulators Agree to Cooperate

The regulatory pressure extends beyond France and Spain.

In June, gambling authorities from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland issued a joint statement on prediction markets.

The nine regulators agreed to cooperate against platforms that do not comply with their respective national regulations and warned about risks associated with prediction-market products.

France’s ANJ has separately identified several European jurisdictions that have already restricted or blocked prediction-market platforms, highlighting the increasingly fragmented regulatory environment.

Europe Has No Single Approach to Prediction Markets

The contrasting positions leave prediction-market operators facing substantially different requirements depending on where they operate.

Gibraltar has chosen to bring the sector within a dedicated licensing system, while France and Spain have treated unauthorized prediction-market offerings as gambling products subject to their existing gambling laws.

The differences are particularly relevant to blockchain-based prediction markets, which combine characteristics of gambling, trading and digital-asset platforms.

For operators, this creates a European market where access increasingly depends on national rules rather than a single regulatory classification. As prediction markets continue to grow, the divide between jurisdictions seeking to license the sector and those restricting unlicensed platforms is becoming more pronounced.