They may not look so impressive as when they destroyed teams at the end of last season, but we believe that has been about focusing on a few specific games rather than having less ability.

When PSG have decided to increase the intensity (as in vs. Bayern Munich in the Champions League or Marseille in Ligue 1), then they've shown that the top end remains available for them.

We believe that the strong display that PSG put on vs. Liverpool in the Champions League at home last season was probably as good a team performance as we've witnessed recently; even though they lost the match.

That high level of performance is still present in the current team.

The time of getting into some serious business is now upon them. The first knock-out round awaits in Monaco, and we estimate PSG's chances of advancing are around 93%.

Then, in the double leg format, PSG would likely be favored in all matches — except Arsenal — which we estimate has roughly a 50% chance of making it to the next stage of the competition.

Taking a statistical approach to reaching the semi finals we calculate the probability to be 41.55%.

If we assume that the road will get much harder (i.e. vs. Bayern in the semifinals and vs. Arsenal in the final) and that PSG wins each matchup with a 50% chance, we calculate the probability of winning the tournament at approximately 10%.